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Release of ten trends in the field of information and communication in 2020

China Industry Daily reporter Cao Yali

On December 26, the 2020 ICT in-depth observation report meeting of China Academy of ICT was held in Beijing. At the meeting, Yu Xiaohui, vice president of the Chinese Academy of information and communication technology, released the report on the top ten trends of the information and communication industry (ICT). Yu Xiaohui said that 5g will comprehensively empower all fields of industry, transportation, energy, medical treatment and economic society to promote a new round of changes in production and lifestyle.

Trend 1: set sail in 5g era and create unlimited space for digital transformation

The report believes that in terms of network coverage, 5g network infrastructure with good quality covering urban and rural areas will be fully built in the next five years. In terms of the number of users, it is estimated that there will be nearly 1.2 billion 5g users worldwide in 2024, and more than 700 million 5g users in China, with a penetration rate of about 45%.

In terms of industrial empowerment and economic drive, 5g comprehensively enables all fields of industry, transportation, energy, medical treatment and economic society to promote a new round of changes in production and lifestyle. It is estimated that in 2024, the added value of economic output directly driven by 5g will reach 2 trillion yuan, and the added value of total economic output indirectly driven will reach 6 trillion yuan.

In terms of network coverage, a high-quality 5g network infrastructure covering urban and rural areas will be built in the next five years. In terms of the number of users, it is estimated that there will be nearly 1.2 billion 5g users worldwide in 2024, and more than 700 million 5g users in China, with a penetration rate of about 45%.

Trend 2: the evolution and reconstruction of information network to build the key cornerstone of the development of digital economy

According to the report, the information network will be characterized by high-speed ubiquitous, intelligent, agile, intensive, efficient, secure and reliable evolution and reconstruction, integrating perception, connection, storage, computing, processing and exchange into a digital infrastructure.

Trend 3: upgrade computing power to create ubiquitous intelligence of all things

In the next five years, quantum, brain like and other disruptive technologies will achieve breakthroughs in small-scale applications, and Moore's law will still dominate. Chip architecture / heterogeneous system innovation oriented to subdivided fields and flexible deployment of computing resources will become the key.

According to the report, 5g accelerates the scale application of edge computing, and 50% of the data will be processed at the edge in the future; The innovation of special intelligent computing chips and heterogeneous acceleration systems for security, voice, automatic driving and other fields is active; Unsupervised / unsupervised learning combined with the operation mechanism of human brain has gradually entered engineering application; Brain control (brain computer interface) products in the field of medical and health will be applied; Quantum annealing has been applied to the field of artificial intelligence to improve the ability of parallel algorithms.

Trend 4: from perception to cognition, artificial intelligence has entered the post deep learning era

The algorithm accelerates the evolution of the era of backward deep learning; Computing power is oriented to the needs of specific scenes and moves towards diversification and customization; Perceptual application is more extensive, and cognitive application is gradually mature.

Trend 5: carrying trusted data, blockchain creates a new foundation for a trusted digital society

At present, blockchain mainly solves the problem of trusted penetration of information flow among multiple agents and opens up data islands. The continuous innovation of blockchain technology, the continuous expansion of blockchain application direction and the continuous improvement of blockchain governance and supervision have become the three key points for the future development of blockchain. Blockchain is deeply integrated with artificial intelligence, Internet of things and other technologies to form a new foundation of ubiquitous and trusted digital society.

Trend 6: "one deep and one wide", and the industrial Internet platform has become the core carrier of digital transformation

According to the analysis of the report, "one depth" refers to providing digital threads and modeling tools to support the construction of digital twins, more accurately describe and optimize the physical world and build an intelligent decision-making carrier; "One wide" refers to gathering and optimizing production factors, driving mode innovation and resource allocation, and becoming the core carrier of industrial ecology in the future.